Vague ramblings

A Jesuit fable: get ready for Generation Debt

Posted in Business, Musing by Ian Cundell on 2 October, 2013

Isn’t that just typical? You wait ages for someone outside the halls of academia to reference the Phillips Curve and then two come along at once.

Almost as my last blog auto-posted, the new issue of Property Week landed on my doormat and there was Peter Pereira Gray, managing director of the investment division at Wellcome Trust – I think we can agree, a pretty damned respectable organisation – nodding to Phillips. It is an interesting article and well worth tracking down, if you don’t take Property Week (27-1-13, p27). It raises reasonable questions about the effectiveness of Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney’s reliance on unemployment as a policy indicator, suggesting that commercial property (and, as it happens my thesis in this short series of blogs) had better hope he is right.

I say “as it happens” because my interest in Carney’s stance is from a different angle.


Inflated expectations: the Phillips Curve ball

Posted in Business, Musing by Ian Cundell on 27 September, 2013

We are very good at ignoring information that conflicts with our world view. Call it over-confidence in your current forecast, call it confirmation bias, call it Albert. The phenomenon is well known.

In my last blog I described how a multi-generational experience of inflation – but especially the cancerous inflation of the 1970s – has shaped perception on what is and isn’t a safe investment for ordinary people. Since then I carried on prodding and poking the numbers and found something interesting, especially when combined with some other tidbits. (more…)

Stagflation: bet your house on it?

Posted in Business, Musing by Ian Cundell on 25 September, 2013

My chum Mark Clementson’s question was simple enough: what would happen to £10,000 left in a bank account in 1966, the short answer being that the paperwork to access it would probably be quite tiresome.

But that’s not the interesting bit. (more…)

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